Often times, I’ll find myself thinking about how Detroit’s history unwound itself into such unfortunate circumstances, particularly during project challenges that encourage us to navigate the city’s more disparate areas. What follows is generally an evening of me digging around on the internet for more information, regardless of how many times I’ve done it before, and how many links I’ll revisit in my search. I know that what I’m looking for is the figurative equivalent of a unicorn – a single equation and Theory of Everything for Detroit. And yet, while my digital expeditions don’t yield exactly what I’m looking for, they still provide fruit to chew on.

It’s fairly apparent to even the most least familiar with Detroit’s history that its circumstance is the result of many problems. They’ve come in many forms, from issues stemming within both public and private sectors. I’d like to cover one of these issues here briefly.

The North American Free Trade Act passed on January 1st, 1994. Since then, economists have attempted to put a price on both the positive and negative affects of NAFTA in an effort to understand the affects, and subsequently gauge the effectiveness of the act.

In short, NAFTA reduced, and in most circumstances completely eliminated all barriers to trade between Mexico, the U.S. and Canada.

Still, the takeaways from the following decades proved to be foggy at best. The problem with attributing either upticks or downward economic mobility to NAFTA, is the difficulty in separating causality between notoriously hard to follow economic shifts and the actual implications of NAFTA’s implementation.

There are, however, a few results that can be attributed directly to the passing of NAFTA. While some are positive, it is perhaps most infamously known for transplanting hundreds of thousands of jobs from the U.S. to Mexico – and almost all these jobs were from the manufacturing sector. Unfortunately for Detroit, this also happened to be the most prolific form of employment in Michigan due to the state’s close relationship with vehicles and related miscellaneous parts manufacturing. Over time, The Economic Policy Institute found that 43,600 jobs were lost in Michigan alone (and perhaps much more when considering indirect impacts), 1%  as a share of total state employment – the largest share of any state in the U.S.

Local suppliers and other assembly plants began to close as American workers were out competed, with wages in Mexico reaching between one to two dollars an hour.

The more I think about it, the clearer it becomes that Detroit has endured, and may still be weathering of ‘The Perfect Storm.’ I do believe, however, that the worst has passed.